Monday, February 25, 2008

On the Non-Solution That is Kenya’s Current Mediation Talks.

Unfortunately, what the world media are not aware of, and quite clearly the highly partisan Kenyan media chooses to be simply blind to, is that this return to single party politics now being touted as the solution for Kenya’s post election ills, falls way short of addressing the real problem which is that hatred of one Kenyan community in particular - the Kikuyu - is the real source of the problem.

Until this issue is addressed including delving into the reasons and sources of this hatred and resentment both legitimate and perceived or even illegitimate, then this single party solution is merely a band aid. It may give Kofi Annan, the career diplomat his kudos, power to the power hungry protagonists and no real solution for Kenya for future generations. I find it amazing that Bush who won in very similar circumstances, as well as the rest of the international community would encourage a return to single party non-democracy in a solution that ignores an existing and legitimate constitution.

As a member of that community, I admit to being possibly biased in my oblivion of our so called advantages, much as whites are accused of in the US, The UK and France and elsewhere in the west where there are huge black minorities, and I can expect that many will doubt my true lack of bias on the underlying questions of post election tumult. However, hatred and targeting of this community has been allowed to run rampant over the last 3 years or so, and I suppose that it was seen by many as legitimate particularly given that the community was perceived to enjoy power, wealth and glory especially being that Kibaki is from the said Kikuyu community. This hatred has been stoked, by the opposition taking a leaf from former president Moi's book, for political expediency, and has been fuelled by many including the so called "independent" national press, which thanks to many who fought for multi party democracy, including Kibaki, is definitely free but certainly not fair.

The main problem with the solution which is currently being touted as the way to peace is that it really does nothing to address neither this hatred of Kikuyus, nor the continued ignoring of the plight of the hundreds of thousands of Kenyans now turned into Internally Displaced People (IDP) in their own country and refugees in Uganda and Tanzania. It does nothing to address the fact that the so called free and fair press has been instrumental in allowing this hatred and venom to fester leading to the situation that we now have where Kikuyus are clearly considered not much more than roaches as were the Tutsi of Rwanda during that country’s crisis. The National Media, particularly the Standard, is continuing to be a spokesman for Odinga at the peril of fuelling even further hatred, and placing the country at a knife’s edge whereby any indication of Raila failing in his selfish political aspirations, that have shown he cares nothing whatsoever for ordinary Kenyans, will cause a new flare up of violence that can and will lead to civil war. Kenya is on the brink of resembling Ivory Coast whom we were previously compared to for our peaceful economic success oasis stories in otherwise volatile regions, but we are now about resemble them for the reverse.

For those who think that this can never happen, one need only look at Cote d’Ivoire, or even slightly further to a country that was even more successful economically and closer in geography and other ways to western Europe, the former Yugoslavia.

Feelings of underlying resentments toward Kikuyus have existed for generations (since before independence), who were always perceived to be too wealthy and too powerful, even during former President Moi's long repressive and oppressive reign which specifically targeted this group. Since Kibaki taking power aided by Odinga, and then falling out with Odinga a few years later over constitutional reform, resentment toward Kikuyus was again legitimized. New more sophisticated terms such as "The Mount Kenya Mafia" were coined by Odinga who was angry over feelings that again, another Odinga's ambitions (his father was formerly Kenyatta's VP before falling out of grace) had been thwarted by yet another Kikuyu.

This continued as election fever grabbed its hold on Kenya, and advanced to more sophisticated use of technology with email forwards, text messages and blogs and forums on internet communities demonizing this group and calling for the eradication of the Mt Kenya Mafia, starting with the removal of Kibaki from power. One may wonder why such hostility should occur especially after Moi’s 24 years of repressive regression, during a period of heightened economic growth, job and wealth creation and freer press, and democratic changes that have occurred during Kibaki’s mere 5 years. However, at a glance, the fact is that while there has been an economic boom of sorts, Kenya is still a third world country and economic growth has been slow to benefit all.

Kikuyu’s who perceive themselves as highly industrious and resourceful, have been considered to have prospered disproportionately, which given that this is the largest single ethnic group, I would counter is in fact proportional to the population. Most in government as well as the majority of Kikuyus had not perceived the real true depths of the resentment borne against them by the rest of Kenya’s communities. As such many dismissed the whisperings as mere political year fever run riot, and did not expect the true consequences of the threat of violence that had become more and more pronounced. Kikuyu’s similar to whites in western countries, or men faced with attacks from feminists for example, stayed silent in the face of attacks from other groups, being that perceived to be holding power, (despite the fact that the VP was a Luyhia from western Kenya, just as was Raila’s VP candidate) and wealth, they were considered to be un-aggrieved.

Further it is very fashionable in our young democracy to attack and oppose the government being that this is a luxury we have only enjoyed for a short period of time. As such Kikuyu’s never went out of their way to defend either Kibaki or his record in government or even themselves from the circulating attacks. Even in the post election crisis, Kikuyus have remained mostly silent and even prominent Kikuyus and Kikuyu politicians have not condemned violence against Kikuyus as they should have. The media reports with broad brush strokes the issue of IDPs in the rift valley in particular, most of them Kikuyu, while really ignoring the catastrophic suffering that is being experienced by individual women and children. However, they write personal humanized stories about members of other communities, referring to them by name and describing their plight in detail. Even Prof Wangari Maathai, with a wonderful opportunity to speak to the true issues facing us in her New York Times article, wasted it on a shallow call to President Kibaki to negotiate, a call that was already all over the media. Her article I am afraid added nothing new to the debate, and her time would have been better served with her sitting at home or planting a tree or something.

Kibaki’s government has brought prosperity to Kenya and it has been fair, non-oprresive and highly inclusive. Kibaki is an aloof economist, clearly not well suited to politics, and this must have been noted by his current opponent Raila, who must have spent enough time next to him to realize that he could get away with what he currently is. In many ways, I do believe that Raila has already shown Kenya what a Raila administration would look like. It would be oppressive and repressive toward Kikuyus, rife with well architected and public relations lies and a wholesale surrender of Kenya’s sovereignty to western and other powers interested in business with him. If his Kibera constituency is anything to go by, Kenya will be headed to the toilet the minute he accedes to power. It has to be admitted that he currently running Kenya through his threats of violence, and in his mere six weeks of unprecedented power, he has managed to return Kenya to pre colonial poverty, and to colonial time insecurity, uncertainty and upheaval.

The western world is now pushing for a return to defacto single party rule in demanding a grand coalition inclusive government, as a quick fix to a problem that many have not cared to understand. This is now seen as the preogressive4 way forward by a shortsighted Kenyan public as well as an international community that is uninformed. The same international community was at the forefront of the call for Moi to introduce legitimate multi-partyism and free democracy. America has been split right through the middle in the middle in its politics for the last 5 or so decades, and election results have usually been split right across the middle. The starkest example would be the 2000 election, where Bush “won” by beating Gore by a mere 527 votes in Florida. Can you imagine then pushing for Bush to include Gore in his government to accommodate Gore’s ego, as is being touted as the band aid solution for Kenya.

We have a constitution, flawed as it may be, and we have a President in office, as well as a legislature. If indeed the constitution is so flawed, then ODM now has the needed majority to vote in amendments. The international community acknowledges that neither Kibaki nor Raila can honestly be ascertained as having won the election, but clearly the better cheat won. Kibaki has a mere five years to left for his second and final term. What then is the haste in amending the constitution overnight, to accommodate the ego of one Kenya by the name if Raila?

A constitution is the most important document that will ever be produced and one written in haste to accommodate individual egos is likely to fail to address the true will of the Kenyan people and secure government institutions that can survive any onslaught of any one Individual in future and for generations to come. I care nothing for Kibaki as a person, and even less for Raila. I do not know either personally, and as far as I have seen, while my cousin was murdered with bow and arrows on my uncle’s farm recently and while the slums have burnt, I see these two sipping cups of tea together and smiling and or flailing their arms depending, it seems, on what side of the bed they got up on that morning.

Until a real true, transparent commission of truth, justice and reconciliation is appointed, convened and allowed to perform a fair and thorough investigation, including into the language used by the opposition, and certain individuals in government, the role of the media, both local and national, radio, print and television, then whatever solutions are hurried through will only be short lived. What happens next time another Kikuyu wins an election, or next time Raila Odinga becomes unhappy about something and calls for mass action. What happens if as PM he runs the Government totally irresponsibly and is fired by Kibaki or even by parliament? Another call to arms, under the guise of peaceful mass action? What happens when another politician with an even bigger ego emerges and has a bone to pick with Raila’s tribe? Another hurried amendment to accommodate said politician.

This is not Dodge, dear cowboy Bush where the strongest survive, and we are aware that you have run the USA in such a way over the last 10 years. Please do not preach to Kenyans about democracy or the process or for that matter, the rule of law. We have seen how your cohorts deal with political rivals, as in the case of former Gov. Siegelman of Alabama Kenyans need to come together to demand an allowance of the running out of President Kibaki’s term for the sake of all of Kenya with greater checks and balances, and at the very most, only some accommodation of the opposition in cabinet positions. Then there should be an immediate convening of a Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Committee that will perform a thorough investigation followed by a real true, open and democratic constitutional review, to apply to all future governments and parliaments in Kenya. Both Raila and Kibaki as protagonists and antagonists in this situation should withdraw themselves from any involvement in this review. That my good friends, I believe is the only way forward to save Kenya from the brink!

Barack in Debates

This is an open letter to the two Davids, Plouffe and Axelrod that is! While those of us in the netroots are as enamored with not just his speeches, but his record and grasp on the issues facing the nation as anyone of you probably is, and in fact, if the Senator were to take a dump in any of our front yards, we would gladly frame it up and hang it as art (Don’t laugh Damien Hirst did just such “art”), we however are indeed the proverbial “choir” as far as preaching goes. But I digress. The point is many of us were already in his back pocket, certainly I was after hearing him at the DNC in 2004!


As such, this is to implore either of you or Michelle or all of you please to point out to the brilliant junior Senator from Illinois, that while we latte sippers of the netroots love it, no, abso-F’in-lutely adore it when he goes for the jugular with our worthy opponent, for example letting her know that she is “likeable enough”, or that some of his “speeches are quite good actually”, many of those voting in their respective primaries, may only ever be seeing him for the first time during the debates prior to those primaries. Many of these voters want and need to see a chivalrous, gentlemanly, sensitive Barack particularly when he is already ahead.

I have watched for a long time, the train wreck that I now consider the “team Billary” campaign to have become, even as they have flipped and flopped on their message as well as their attack tactics, that have mostly fallen flat. However, the one successful campaign upset, IMHO, in NH was IMO, one that the said campaign was handed quite innocently by the debate moderator, aided by the brilliance embodied that is Obama - in his seeming arrogance and indifference and lack of chivalry - to a wounded HRC in his “she is likeable enough comment”.


I have come to the conclusion that team “Billary” now aware that this is the one thing that has worked for them in the past, is now out to enrage BO as much as possible, hoping that “Dear Mama” Clinton will smile and flutter her eyelids in the debates, while an angry, attacking, aloof, Barack will ignore her or worse or better, depending on which camp you're in, will say something arrogant or condescending to the poor sweet losing-streak, broke-campaign, would-be-first-female POTUS, who is nothing but “honored, absolutely honored” to be sitting right there next to him.


Therefore, I implore all of you near him to please please, point out to him that he has to hold back his personal hurt feelings duriing debates and remember that this is a political campaign. I remember once getting an campaign email from Michelle Obama during the SC primary season, saying how “what we didn’t expect was Bill Clinton blah blah blah...” For the first time I rolled my eyes at something I had seen from your camp, thinking, “It’s a presidential race, what did you expect sweetie, pie and cookies saying welcome to the field from ‘team Billary’?” You have to be prepared for absolutely anything, including the most foul and unimaginable. If HRC’s “real” ‘Rovian’ tactics shock you, then, wait till the GOP that in fact has the real Rove, start coming for us in the months ahead through the fall!


The last thing that BO does that worries somewhat when before neutral audiences such as during debates is his constant pointer that he did or said such and such, and “I was right” The phrase, my dear good sir is “I did and said such and such, and the evidence is clear, or the facts support my stand, or even better, and the voters have to decide who is/was right! Yes, Obama is genius in my humble opinion, and yes, I do have his shrine right next to my soy-latte cappuccino maker that sits above my Birkenstock shoe rack, but then again you already had me in 2004, and you would have had me in 2002 if I had seen your speech or interviews re: the war back then. Indeed, you have run a brilliant campaign that has confounded even I, your 1000% supporter, and need no preaching from me. However, isn’t this as you say, our campaign; blogged, staffed, fueled, funded and yes indeed, “fired up!” by, “we the people”? As such, I feel that every little helps, and this is my attempt at one more piece of a contribution. You have called on me to believe not just in your abilities, but in mine too, and this is one more way that I am answering your call. And talking of funding, would you wrap this nomination thing up already, it’s eating away from my latte money!
Political blog with smatterings of pop culture, a lil bit of goss here and there and some of my Op ed